Meanwhile, voters under 30 say they are keenly following the campaign. Eighty percent say they believe “it matters a lot” who wins the election. And 70 percent say they are closely or somewhat closely following the race.
At least half of all under-30 voters now disapprove of Bush’s performance in four key areas: the economy, domestic issues, foreign policy and the war on terrorism and Iraq. The most noteworthy shifts in young voter opinion are on international issues. In May, more than half (55 percent) of voters 18 to 29 supported the president’s handling of foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism, but since then his numbers have reversed. Now just 47 percent approve and half of the respondents say they (52 percent) disapprove. More potentially challenging to the Bush campaign is the fact that more than half of young voters (60 percent, up from 55 percent in May) now disapprove of the president’s handling of Iraq, and more than one third (37 percent) strongly disapprove.
But Iraq and security take second billing as concerns of young voters. Two-thirds say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who focuses on the economy and jobs, rather than on national security and the war on terror. This could be bad news in the months ahead for the incumbent as approval of his handling of domestic issues has dropped after a slight improvement in May. More than half (56 percent) disapprove of his handling of health care, education, the environment and energy while just 40 percent approve (down six points from last month). Similarly, 56 percent of young voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, with 43 percent approving.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, nearly all of Kerry’s strong supporters (92 percent) object to the president’s handling of Iraq. Under-30 voters in general show signs of a rallying around the senator. Half (53 percent) of self-described Kerry supporters now say they will “definitely” vote for their candidate in November, up from just over a third (37 percent) a month ago. “Strong” support for Kerry is also up significantly from May. One-quarter of all young registered voters, up from 16 percent in May, say they strongly support the candidate.
Meanwhile, independent candidate Ralph Nader’s numbers are slipping among the under-30 crowd. During the past few months, support for Nader has been stronger among young voters than the public at large. However, according to the poll, this support appears to be waning. Just 7 percent of registered voters under 30 say they would vote for Nader, down from 12 percent in February when he threw his hat into the ring. In part, this may be because there is an increasing perception among some of his potential supporters-younger, more educated, left-leaning voters-that voting for the liberal Nader could actually help Bush’s chances for reelection. While half (54 percent) say voting for Nader would neither help nor hurt Bush’s chances for reelection, three in ten do see a connection between voting for Nader and Bush’s reelection prospects.
